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Soybean Market at the Start of 2025: Prices Rise, Brazil's Production Projected to Increase



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Soybean Market at the Start of 2025: Prices Rise, Brazil's Production Projected to Increase

InfoSAWIT, KUALA LUMPUR – The soybean market begins 2025 on a positive trend, marked by rising prices across most contracts. Soybean futures have recorded a stable increase of up to 3 ½ cents per bushel. The national cash price for next month's contract, according to CmdtyView, rose by 1 ¼ cents to $9.56 per bushel.

Soymeal futures also saw significant increases, rising $3 to $5.20 per ton. However, soybean oil futures experienced a decline, dropping 6 to 23 points during the trading session.

According to InfoSAWIT from barchart.com, rainfall is expected to hit eastern and central Argentina in the next 8 to 14 days. However, northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil remain dry. This condition raises concerns, even as Brazil's soybean production forecast has been positively revised. StoneX has increased Brazil's soybean production estimate for the 2024/ 2025 season by 5.2 million metric tons (MMT), from the previous estimate to a total of 171.4 MMT.

The monthly Fats & Oils report indicated that 210 million bushels of soybeans were processed in November 2024, exceeding the estimate of 207.2 million bushels. Although this figure represents a 2.66% decrease from the record set in October, it is a 4.97% increase compared to November 2023, marking a new monthly record. Soybean oil stocks at the end of November were recorded at 1.612 billion pounds, higher than anticipated.

The weekly export sales report, scheduled for release on Friday morning, is expected to show soybean orders for the 2024/2025 season ranging between 0.5 to 1.2 million metric tons (MMT). For the 2025/2026 season, estimated orders are projected between 0 and 100,000 MT. Soymeal sales are anticipated to be in the range of 150,000 to 400,000 MT, while soybean oil sales are expected to be between 5,000 and 40,000 MT.

Price Closures:

January 2025 soybeans closed at $9.99 ½, up 1 ¼ cents.

Nearby cash price stood at $9.56, up 1 ¼ cents.

March 2025 soybeans closed at $10.12, up 1 ½ cents.

July 2025 soybeans closed at $10.37 ¾, up 3 cents.

Meanwhile, Malaysian palm oil futures weakened on Thursday (January 2), following a sell-off triggered by a slowdown in the initial upward momentum driven by Dalian vegetable oil, its main competitor.

According to Reuters, the benchmark palm oil contract FCPOc3 for March 2025 delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was recorded down 1.33%, at RM 4,389 (approximately US$ 980.56) per metric ton at midday. Earlier, prices had risen by as much as 1.8% at the start of trading.

A trader based in Kuala Lumpur revealed that the initial increase was driven by positive movements in Dalian soybean oil. "However, the lack of supportive news or sufficient follow-up to maintain the upward momentum triggered the sell-off," he stated. (T2)

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not contain investment recommendations.


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