InfoSAWIT, JAKARTA – China’s soybean imports are projected to decrease by 9.5% in the marketing year ending September 2025, according to an executive from China National Cereals, Oils, and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO). The drop would bring imports to 98.8 million metric tons, down from 109.4 million tons in the previous year.
Speaking at an oilseed conference, the unnamed COFCO executive did not elaborate on the reasons behind the anticipated decline but highlighted the need to monitor Chinese buyers' readiness to purchase U.S. soybeans. “In the long-term trend, U.S. soybean profit margins look relatively good, but we need to assess whether buyers will take the risk of purchasing U.S. soybeans,” the executive said, as reported by InfoSAWIT via Reuters on Sunday (17/11/2024).
This year, China increased soybean imports to mitigate potential trade tensions with the U.S., particularly in light of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Concerns are growing that a return of Donald Trump to the White House could reignite trade disputes similar to his first term when tariffs were imposed on U.S. soybeans.
During the trade conflict, U.S. soybeans offered high profit margins, but demand was insufficient to offset the impact of tariffs. The COFCO executive stressed the importance of evaluating these margins as they could influence future import decisions.
In October, China imported 8.09 million tons of soybeans, the highest monthly total for October in four years and a 56% increase from 5.18 million tons in the same period last year. This surge is expected to drive China’s total soybean imports in 2024 to a record high.
Demand for soybean meal, a key driver of soybean imports in China, has been bolstered by the recovery of the country’s pig farming sector. Many pig farms have returned to profitability after years of losses. The executive noted that soybean meal demand is likely to remain robust, as pork prices are expected to stay above production costs after the Spring Festival in 2025.
Since the trade dispute, China has taken measures to reduce its reliance on U.S. agricultural products, focusing on bolstering food security. As a result, U.S. soybeans’ share of China’s total imports fell from 40% in 2016 to just 18%, while Brazil’s share rose from 46% to 76%, according to Chinese customs data. (T2)
