InfoSAWIT, JAKARTA — Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has released its latest report, the Climate Outlook 2025, outlining anticipated weather patterns across Indonesia for the coming year. This forecast is intended as a reference for national and regional governments, as well as various sectors, to guide climate-related planning and development.
BMKG Head Dwikorita Karnawati stated that no significant climate anomalies are expected in 2025. Key indicators such as ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are projected to remain neutral throughout the year. “However, a weak La Niña may persist into early 2025, slightly influencing rainfall in certain regions,” she noted in an official release received by InfoSAWIT on Wednesday (November 6, 2024).
BMKG also anticipates a slight rise in monthly surface temperatures in Indonesia, especially between May and July 2025, with temperature anomalies ranging from +0.3 to +0.6 °C. This temperature increase is likely to be more noticeable in areas such as southern Sumatra, Java, West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), and East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), which should remain alert to the potential for heat waves.
In terms of rainfall, BMKG predicts that most Indonesian regions will experience normal annual rainfall, averaging between 1,000 and 5,000 mm per year. Dwikorita highlighted that about 67% of the country is expected to see rainfall levels above 2,500 mm per year. This includes areas such as Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, western Riau, most of Kalimantan, central and southern Sulawesi, and much of Papua.
Conversely, approximately 15% of Indonesia is predicted to have above-normal rainfall, including small parts of Sumatra, eastern East Kalimantan, central and northern Sulawesi, and parts of NTT and Maluku. Meanwhile, around 1% of the country is expected to experience below-normal rainfall, particularly in parts of western South Sumatra, NTT, North Maluku, and northern West Papua.
In addition to rainfall and temperature forecasts, BMKG noted potential prolonged dry spells in Bali, NTB, and NTT, urging these regions to prepare for such conditions. With the release of this climate outlook, BMKG hopes that relevant authorities can implement more effective anticipatory measures to mitigate extreme weather impacts and better equip key sectors to address next year’s climate challenges. (T1)
