InfoSAWIT, KUALA LUMPUR – Crude palm oil (CPO) significantly got increasing price in March 2024. It hit the top at RM 4.327 per ton. But Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) predicted, it would be stable at about RM 4.000 to RM 4.200 per ton this month.
Palm Pulse, April 2024 edition described that MPOC identified some major factors that could influence the dynamic of CPO trade. The increasing palm oil production, increasing imports and the recovery of vegetable oil price would influence the trade.
Palm oil production that could be higher would start in April and this could restrict the increasing price. It would be the same with the production and supply trend which mostly gets more expensive than it in November and hit the top price in February or March.
MPOC also observed the increasing vegetable oil imports in India and China for the next months, to balance bearish sentiment that may happen for the increasing stocks and production. Vegetable oil supply in the two countries hit the lowest level since November 2022, namely because of the significant decreasing imports some time ago.
As quoted from Bernama, sunflower oil that was cheap from January to March 2024 would be better in this very short. But sunflower production would increase in Black Sea. This showed the decreasing production year on year from April to September 2024. It also would minimize price pressure from the commodity.
Data in February 2024 showed that palm oil stock decreased in Malaysia for four months in a row. It reached 5,0 percent month on month and 9,4 percent year on year. Though palm oil exports and consumption significantly escalated in the country in the first two months of 2024, the increasing production was just in few numbers. This showed the increasing demands surpassed the increasing supply.
It means, palm oil trade in April 2024 would be supported by some related variables, such as, production, imports, and demands. Stable price, as MPOC predicted, would maintain the balance among the factors to face the challenges and change in the global trade. (T2)
