InfoSAWIT, JAKARTA - The latest data showed palm oil stock in Malaysia in December 2023 decreased 4,64% to be 2,29 million tons, hit the lowest level in the past three months.
It happened for decreasing trend because of the increasing impacts from El Nino. Palm oil production in Malaysia in the fourth quarter of 2023 hit the highest level since 2018, escalated 0,16 million tons from 5,11 to be 5,27 million tons compared to the same period in 2022.
The increasing production trend in the 2023 fourth quarter could be happening until the first quarter of 2024. That is why the 2024 palm oil production in Malaysia could be increasing 1% to be about 18,75 million tons.
Though there is optimism to the 2024 palm oil price to be about RM 4.000 per ton in average, it is predicted it could be cheaper in January 2024 because of the decreasing demands from importer countries and price competition from canola oil and sunflower oil.
As quoted from the official page of Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC), palm oil supply in Indonesia could be deficit about 0,24 million tons in 2024. This happened for the increasing consumption for biodiesel program and food sector while there is no significant increasing production. The deficit could get bigger if the export activity would surpass the prediction.
On the other hand, USA would get net imports about 22.000 tons soyoil in 2023/2024 to net exports that reached 1,14 million tons in 2019/2020. This may mean, USA turns from net exporter to be soyoil net importer.
But fat and oil production in the globe in 2023/24 could be increasing about 3,46 million tons, while the consumption could be increasing about 7,22 million tons. These could happen for more terms and conditions of biodiesel mandate in USA, Indonesia, and Brazil. As the result, fat and oil dynamic in the world could be closer in the second half of 2024.
OCBC Global Markets Research, one commodity research institution in Kuala Lumpur revised crude palm oil (CPO) price projection in 2024. It would be about RM 3.650 per ton from the previous prediction that was about RM 3.400 per ton. (T2)
for more, please read Majalah infoSAWIT, February 2024
