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Some Factors Determining CPO Price in March 2024

Doc. InfoSAWIT
Some Factors Determining CPO Price in March 2024

InfoSAWIT, JAKARTA – The Government of United States of America (USA) agreed to sell E15 gasoline (gasoline mixed with 15% ethanol) in this year. This would be available in April 2025, would be significant progress. USA would also regulate the restriction to sell E15 gasoline during the summer because environmental issue about smoke. The increasing ethanol consumption would lead to the decreasing biodiesel consumption.

Meanwhile the biggest agricultural cooperation in Brazil started 2024 by having seeds stocks about 50% higher stocks than those in 2023. It happened for the abundant harvest and decreasing exports.

Agroindustri Coamo, a company that involved in purchasing and marketing in beans, seeds, and other plants in Brazil told that soyoil delivery from the plants in 2024 pressed the available storage capacity.

By the late of February, Indonesian Palm Oil Associaiton (IPOA) announced that palm oil stocks in Indonesia reached about 3,14 million tons per 31 December 2023. The numbers were the lowest stock since 2015.

As quoted from Palm Pulse, by the end days of spring season, palm oil production in March could make it as the anticipation to production recovery in April.

Soyoil supplies from South America could have something to do with soyoil price in the globe. The soyoil harvest in Brazil reached 48% in progress on 29 February, the projection could be 70% in March. Soyoil harvest in Argentina could start in the second week of March.

Both Malaysia and Indonesia now have palm oil stocks in the lowest level.

Still from Palm Pulse, crude palm oil (CPO) price prospect in March could remain stable to it in February at about RM 3,700 (US$ 777) to RM 3,950 (US$ 830) with the same trade. The strong price trend in the first two months of 2024 mostly had something to do with supply deficit. When palm oil production got lower in March, it might reflect production recovery level and the supplies in April and May. This potentially restricts palm oil price.

Besides, palm oil got more expensive than soft oil (production) that kept increasing in February. Palm oil premium price to sunflower oil in Europe, escalated from US$ 38 to be US$ 65 in February, while soyoil premium price was at US$ 70. This might mean that palm oil for first time surpassed the main soft oils price in the same time in Europe. (T2)