InfoSAWIT, PETALING JAYA – In December 2023, palm oil stocks in Malaysia decreased 4,64%, or the lowest level in the past three months. This was generally the same with palm oil production. The increasing production because of El Nino in the last quarter of 2023 encouraged Malaysia got the highest level since 2018 or increased 0,16 million tons, from 5,11 million tons to be 5,27 million tons, compared to the same period in 2022.
As in the official statement of Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) that InfoSAWIT got on Monday (15/1/2024), observed production in the fourth quarter of 2023 could continue in the first quarter of 2024. That is why it is projected, palm oil production in Malaysia in 2024 would increase only 1%, to be about 18,75 million tons.
The 2024 palm oil price, there is optimism that it would be about RM 4,000. The positive projection happens for the supply and demand dynamic in Indonesia which could be negative after Indonesia implements biodiesel 35 percent (B35) in August 2023.
The deficit production in Indonesia about 0,24 million tons would be the description, domestic consumption combination that increased to be the materials for biodiesel and food, without same increasing production. This would make the deficit bigger if the exports would increase more than the projection.
Meanwhile, according to Oil World, fat and oil production in the globe in 2023/24 could increase 3,46 million tons. The consumption could do too 7,22 million tons. It happens for the biodiesel mandate terms and condition in the United States, Indonesia and Brazil. As the result, fat and oil in the world would get tense in the second semester of 2024.
In soyoil commodity in 2022/23, United States transformed from being net exporter to be net importer. This chance would continue until 2023/24, within net soyoil imports about 22,000 tons compared to the net export that reached 1,14 million tons in 2019/20. (T2)