InfoSAWIT, JAKARTA – Estimating production is the routine one in palm oil plantation namely it has something to do with other factors that relate to cultivation. Production estimation should be right and never miss a thing.
In the recent day, there was question in the timeline of one favourite social media of the people. Here is the question: “How to calculate the potential of the production?”
At a glance, it is a simple question, but it is not. It needs deeper answer and description for there should be tabulating some factors, such as, the climate namely the rain, the sunshine, the land namely about the solum depth, the slope, texture, and others.
In order not to discuss in many perspectives, the question should focus to one thing, not about the ‘calculation of potential of production’ but ‘how to calculate the production estimation?’ The writer thought, calculating the potential of production is not easy to do and the agronomists and the field planters never do it. The decision makers (management in a company) think about it. This article would discuss about the production estimation only.
Here we go.
The writer thought, this section relates to mathematic calculation but it needs to know and understand some theroies and technics too.
The first thing to know and the numbers should be fixed:
- The numbers of the productive trees in one block, not include the insertion or the abnormal trees. The trees were got from the census usually used in the data base.
- The average weight of bunch is got from the total weight of the bunch and divided by the numbers of bunch. For example, the total weight of the bunch 4000 kilogram (kg) within the numbers of bunch 200 bunches. So the average weight of bunch is 20 kg. The next month estimation should use the previous average weight of bunch.
- The numbers of tree sample is the numbers of every productive trees in the sample line which has been determined. For example, the sample line consists of 27 trees and in one block, there are 126 lines so the sample lines are 7. The numbers of tree samples are 7 x 27 trees = 189 trees.
- The numbers of bunch sample is the numbers of every bunch starting from the small FFB to the mature FFB in the sample trees which have been determined. It is important: the 4 month – census should be done after the last harvest in the block which has been in census. If the harvest rotation still runs in the next days, the bunch which becomes seed should not be calculated for it would be harvested in the next rotation. In this context, we assume, there are 945 bunches.
- The bunch per tree is every bunch which is calculated and divided by the numbers of sample trees. From the above explanation, 945 : 189 = 5 bunches per tree.
- The coffee fruit is the newest fruit (like coffee seed) which is calculated as the sample. See the picture.
- The clove tree is still like flower so it should not be calculated in the 4 month – production census. The flower still has chance to be dead. Treat it well and pay attention to it.
- Red fruit (it is a little bit difficult because there is also ‘not red fruit) which means, the hafl mature and ready to be harvested in very short time.
- The receptive female fruit is the flower is ready to be pollinated and it teases the pollinating beetle. For the 6 month – census, the flower and point number 9 should be calculated.
- The production distribution is the estimation of production distribution in every single month which is taken from the average percentage of the monthly production actually in the last five years or at least in the last three years. If there no particular data, it could seen from the neighborhood plantation (hopefully the neighbor wants to share the data) or find out in the literature rather than having nothing.
The next is that it would be better if the experience and instict of the planters should be combined with the distribution numbers. It is better too not to focus on the distribution numbers because every harvester would understand and know when the peak harvest happened.
By: Marlon Sitanggang /Head Agronomy PT Union Sampoerna Triputra Persada
For more, please read InfoSAWIT, June 2018