CPO Price behind The Abundant CPO Stock

Doc. InfoSAWIT
CPO Price behind The Abundant CPO Stock

InfoSAWIT, PETALING JAYA – (Crude) palm oil stock becomes one standard to predict CPO price globally. This week it gets pressure because of the prediction of abundant stock.

According to the analysis of CGS-CIMB Research from nine traders and analysis of Reuters, CPO stock in the domestic level would be reaching more than two million tons by the late of August 2022.

In the report, CGS-CIMB Research predicted, CPO stock in Malaysia could be increasing 16% compared to the previous month and increased 9% compared from the same period to be 2,06 million tons in August, the highest numbers since November 2019 because of the higher production.

“We predicted, in the domestic level, CPO stocks in August in Malaysia were 3% above the average in the past 10 years in August 2022 that reached two million tons,” the institution mentioned, as quoted from The Star.

Survey by the futures team of CGS-CIMB Research also revealed that CPO production in the country could be increasing 10% compared to the previous month and 1% compared to last year in the same period to be 1,73 million tons in August.

Still in August, palm oil export could be decreasing about 0,4% month on month (mom) but increased 12,8% year on year (yoy) to be 1,32 million tons, as Surveyor Kargo, Intertek reported.

Intertek projected that the exports increased 1,6% mom and SGS claimed the export increased 0,3%, but Amspec Malaysia anticipate the decreasing reached 3%.

“Palm oil export which slightly decreased from Malaysia might happen for the higher palm oil export supply from Indonesia,” CGS-CIMB Research noted.

Prior the survey of Reuters on Monday (5/9/2022) showed that palm oil stock in Malaysia by the late of August could be more than two million tons for the first time in the past two years because of the leap of production.

In the same time, the exports from the second biggest palm oil producer in the world increased 8% to be 1,7 million tons, that hit the peak in the past ten months.

“August, the early season of the peak production would be the best month to produce. It is supported by the rain which offers enough moist and escalate the numbers of harvest. But the increasing production in September 2022 would be slowing down because the production process needs some time to recover,” Sathia Varqa, one founder of Palm Oil Analytics in Singapore mentioned, as quoted from Reuters. (T2)